What to Expect In Tonight's Championship Game

With the 2007 NCAA Championship game only an hour away, it's practically obligatory for Drive and Dish to offer thoughts. So after hours upon hours of contentious editorial staff meetings, we've settled on a few key points:

Nearly everyone expects Florida to walk away with a second consecutive NCAA Championship. I don't think it will be that easy, but I do expect Florida to win. They're the best team in the country, though Ohio State isn't far behind. Much like the 2005 NCAA Final between North Carolina and Illinois, this year's Final features the two best teams in college basketball. Because of the tournament format, the final game often doesn't feature the two best teams. I thought Connecticut was the best team last year, but they got knocked out before the Final Four. Florida proved to be a great team, but they didn't have to face an equal in the Final Four (Florida overwhelmed UCLA in the Championship game last year -much like they did in the Semifinal game two days ago). Florida will beat Ohio State, but it will be fun to watch because they're both supremely talented, well coached teams.

I attended last year's Championship game, and despite all the media attention given to Joakim Noah, was most impressed with Taurean Green and Corey Brewer. I didn't appreciate how good Green was until I saw him in person. Green's broke down UCLA's defense with his penetration. He got into the lane, forced defenders to step up to help, and dished off to cutting big men (Noah, Al Horford and Chris Richard) for easy dunks and layups. Brewer was the most athletic guy on the floor. With his athleticism and length on the wing, he's incredibly difficult to defend. And he's a lights-out shooter who can create his own shot.

Florida's big men overwhelm teams because they're bigger and more athletic than their opponents. Noah and Horford are 6'10"/6'11" guys who move like wings. They get down the floor for easy transition baskets. In the half court, they set screens and cut to the basket (and, as such, get easy baskets via the perimeter players' driving and dishing). They're in constant motion: along with cutting to the basket, they seem to get every loose ball and rebound. Noah just seems to float into position. Although he doesn't always appear to be playing hard, he always manages to be in the right place at the right time.

Even though Mike Conley, Jr can probably match Taurean Green in going to the rim and in the open court, Ohio State will struggle with Florida's transition and half-court penetration. And despite the seven foot Greg Oden, Ohio State won't be able to keep Florida's bigs off the glass, or from cutting for easy baskets. Ultimately, OSU will be forced to double down on Noah, Horford and Richard. That will result in open threes, via the kick out, for Florida's shooters- Brewer and the lights-out Lee Humphrey.

I expect Ohio State to open with man to man defense, but to throw a match up zone at Florida from time to time. I don't think it will make much difference, though.

Ohio State should give Florida a game, but the Gators are just too big, too athletic, too talented and too deep for the Buckeyes. Ohio State has been successful because they're good in transition, they have a great point guard (Conley) who can break down defenses and get into the lane, they've got good shooters, athletic wings, and they have a dominant big man (Oden) who can score in the post and beat opponents to the glass. Unfortunately, for Ohio State, those are exactly the things that Florida does; but Florida does them better. Ohio State and Florida have fantastic point guards, but Florida is better on the perimeter (with Brewer and Humphrey), and has too many talented, athletic big men down low. If Greg Oden can stay out of foul trouble, he'll help keep OSU in the game. But Florida has too much size, athleticism and depth. Florida's big men will overwhelm Ohio State. They'll get all the rebounds and loose balls. Florida will get second chance points all day long. And when Florida's bigs start scoring in the post, OSU will double down - which will create open shots for Brewer and Humphrey.

Ohio State will be competitive, but, ultimately, Florida will be too much for the Buckeyes. Florida will be the first team to win back to back NCAA Championships since Duke did it in 1991 and 1992.