Preview of Tonight's Final Four

By Trashtalk Superstar

Tonight will mark the first time in the history of the NCAA Tournament in which all four #1 seeds will play in the Final Four. I always say that whichever team wins the National Championship isn't necessarily the best team in the country, but is, rather, the team that managed to catch the right breaks at the right time, cause the most match up problems for its opponents, get hot at the right time, get a little lucky and win the NCAA Tournament.

Remember, it's a single elimination tournament. The team that does the best job of surviving and advancing will be crowned the National Champion. Sometimes the best team wins the Tournament, and sometimes a surprise team rises up and wins the Tournament.

But this year all the #1 seeds have advanced to the Final Four. And, unlike some years, there wasn't much controversy over which teams got 1 seeds. All four 1 seeds were clearly the cream of the crop in college basketball for 2008. Which means that it should be one of the most interesting Final Four's in recent history.

But these things rarely go according to plan.

So here's what I expect from tonight's games:

Memphis vs. UCLA

Memphis has been playing like a National Champion. When they're on top of their game, they're practically unstoppable.

Memphis has a team full of incredibly athletic, long (tall for their position and long armed) perimeter players. It's one thing to be athletic. It's another to be long. But if you're as athletic and long as Memphis is, you're probably going to cause some serious match up problems for opposing teams.

What's more, the most important player on the floor in college basketball -- and especially in the NCAA Tournament -- is the point guard. In order to have success in the NCAA Tournament, a team must have consistently good play out of the point guard position (having a good big guy is also important, but everything starts with the PG). In Derrick Rose, Memphis has a point guard who is simply in another league. Although merely a freshman, Rose is playing better than any other PG in the college game.

Derrick Rose is the catalyst for everything Memphis does. When Rose is on his A game (which he has been all Tournament long), Memphis works like a well oiled machine. Derrick Rose has unusual poise, presence, court vision and leadership qualities for someone so young. He's probably already good enough to start at point guard for several NBA teams. And he may just be the most athletic guy on the floor in this year's Final Four.

UCLA also has an outstanding point guard in Darren Collison. And they have some athletic guys too. But, although he's a nice NBA prospect, Collison will struggle with Rose. Derrick Rose is bigger, stronger and even more athletic than Collison is (and Collison is quite athletic). And Rose has the ability to take over a game -- whether it shows in the box score or not (i.e., by attacking defenses, creating for others, pushing the ball in transition, scoring, etc.).

And even though UCLA's other guards and wings are quite good, I expect Memphis' perimeter guys to just be too tall, too long, too athletic and too good for UCLA to handle.

UCLA does have one advantage over Memphis: the presence of freshman big man Kevin Love. Love is big, strong and skilled. If UCLA can prevent Memphis from turning the game into a track meet, Love should cause major match up problems for Memphis.

Memphis' big man, Joey Dorsey, is used to being the biggest, strongest and nastiest guy on the floor. At times in his college career, he's played like a man among boys. But UCLA's Love is bigger and stronger than Dorsey. And Love has been playing like a first team All American recently.

However, Love won't be effective if UCLA is forced into playing an up-tempo game. And, make no mistake, Memphis will look to push the tempo. If Memphis can keep UCLA out of its half court sets and keep Love off the boards, then the game is theirs for the taking.

Although, if Memphis has an Achilles heel, it's their questionable free throw shooting. In the event of a close game, Memphis' poor free throw shooting could seal their fate.

Ultimately, I think that this should be the more exciting of tonight's games. Both of these teams are good enough to win the National Championship. Memphis will look to run; UCLA will look to pound the ball into Love.

Who do I pick to win this game?

This one's a toss-up, as far as I'm concerned. Earlier in the week, I thought that Memphis would cruise to victory. But the more I think about how these teams match up, the more I think that Love could be too much for Memphis to handle.

But if I had to put money on it, I'd say that Memphis should be able to push the ball and force UCLA into playing an up-tempo, full court game. And that should be enough to send UCLA home from its third straight Final Four appearance empty handed (without a National Championship) again.

So, if pushed, I'd have to go with Memphis.


North Carolina vs. Kansas

Everybody knows how good North Carolina is. They're talented at every position. They've got an outstanding point guard. They've got great wing players. And in bruising forward Tyler Hansbrough, they've got the (well deserving) AP college basketball Player of the Year.

When they're on their game, North Carolina is a juggernaut. Hell, they're even great when they're a little off their game.

But don't write Kansas off. The Jayhawks barely got past Davidson in the Elite 8. But that could actually be a plus for them coming into the Final Four.

They looked tight against Davidson. And they probably were tight. After all, how embarrassing would it have been for #1 seed Kansas to let tiny Davidson -- which was a 10 seed, for God's sake -- sneak into the Final Four? Remember, Bill Self's Kansas teams suffered humiliating first round Tournament losses in 2005 (to Bucknell) and in 2006 (to Bradley). Allowing Cinderella Davidson to crash the Final Four would have been bad.

But now that Kansas is in the Final Four, they won't have the underachiever label attached to them anymore. Which should be a liberating thing for the Jayhawks. And that could prompt them to come out loose against North Carolina. After all, practically everyone in the world knows about how great the Tar Heels are this year. And everyone knows all about Tyler Hansbrough. But Kansas hasn't gotten that kind of media shine this year.

So the Jayhawks might feel like they're being overlooked by the media, which could give them an "underdog" mentality. And that might equate to them entering the North Carolina game with a chip on their collective shoulders.

Teams that play loose, as if they have nothing to lose, and that play with chips on their shoulders are dangerous. And few teams are as talented as this Kansas team. If Kansas, with all its talent, plays loose and comes out like it has something to prove against North Carolina, they could very well find themselves playing for the National Championship on Monday night.

But Kansas will need to come out and punch North Carolina in the mouth early on. If they can do that, then all bets are off.

UNC and Kansas both have solid PG play. But I think North Carolina's Ty Lawson has the edge in this match up. Lawson is a certain future NBA player and he's as quick a guard as you'll find.

Kansas small forward Brandon Rush is also a sure fire future NBA player, although he'll be a 2 guard in the league. Rush is long, athletic and explosive. But what sets him apart is the fact that he can score all day long.

Like Rush, North Carolina shooting guard Wayne Ellington is also an athletic, big guard who can flat out score the ball. And he's also a sure-fire NBA prospect. But Ellington is also an outstanding shooter. He's dangerous anytime he has the ball -- no matter where he is on the court.

And I think that North Carolina has the advantage in the front court. Although Kansas' Darrell Aurthur is a wiry, athletic scoring power forward and Sasha Kaun does everything a good college big man should do, North Carolina's Hansbrough should be able to get the best of Kansas. The Jayhawks have a size advantage, and Kaun will probably give Hansbrough and the Tar Heels' front line more trouble than most people will expect. But it won't be enough to stop the AP college player of the year. Advantage: North Carolina.

Prediction: This game should be fun. Don't sleep on Kansas. They could really give North Carolina problems. And if they're loose and play with chips on their shoulders, they could easily win. I think that Kansas has the ability to take North Carolina out of its game. And if that happens, look out.

However, I expect North Carolina to play well and, ultimately, to get past the Jayhawks in a close game (possibly an overtime game). And Roy Williams' Tar Heels will probably go on to win their 5th National Championship (by beating Memphis) in two days.

But that would almost be too predictable.