Thoughts On the ACC

The Drive and Dish editors spent the last week traveling through the Carolinas. We weren't traveling for pleasure, and we only had a limited time to watch basketball. But we did get the chance to see several games on Saturday, Feb. 28, as well as a couple games on the preceding Wednesday and Thursday. Since the Drive and Dish headquarters are located in Chicago, we normally get to see plenty of Big Ten local programming. But our travels in North and South Carolina afforded us the opportunity to see several local (i.e., not nationally televised) Atlantic Coast Conference games (to the extent that we've been able to view games, which, as stated before, has been limited).

On a side note, it was fun to watch two disappointing Clemson losses games with a cousin who's a 2008 Clemson alumnus. I've never been around Clemson fans during basketball season (just football season), and it was fun to bear witness to their angst and frustration during losses to Virginia Tech and Florida State. Clemson is a football school first and foremost. As such, I wasn't aware that Clemson fans really cared about basketball. And after watching Clemson basketball with some them, I'm still not convinced that they actually care about basketball. But they like to see Clemson win, and they root hard for their Tigers. Plus, they hate Tyler Hansbrough and North Carolina ... but no more than they hate Mike Krzyzewski and Duke.

I also got the chance to watch Duke narrowly escape an upset at the hands of Virginia Tech with family members who are fairly recent UNC alums, and big Heels fans (my cousin and her husband -- whose father is a professor at UNC-Chapel Hill and played basketball for the Tar Heels in the 1960's). In my experience, UNC fans tend to be knowledgeable, sophisticated college basketball fans. There are exceptions, of course, but as a general rule, the Heels' fan base is among the best in college basketball. Certainly, the Heels fans who I watched the Duke game with fit that description.

But lest Drive and Dish plunge head first into full-fledged digression mode, we return our focus back to the original intent of this post: our impromptu, early-March Drive stay in the Carolinas allowed Drive and Dish's editors to take in plenty of late-season ACC basketball. And although we've been monitoring the ACC all season long from our Chicagoland headquarters (and haven't really changed our opinions of the key players in the ACC), being immersed in ACC country with fans of ACC teams has prompted Drive and Dish to have a renewed interest in several of the league's less-glamorous, and less-publicized teams.

In other words, we've got some thoughts on the ACC, and we're willing to share them.

First, we'll offer a quick take on the Final Four prospects of the top teams in the ACC. Then we'll give a few thoughts about the NCAA Tournament prospects for the other ACC Tournament hopefuls.


North Carolina:

As we've stated before, Drive and Dish expects North Carolina to make it to the Final Four. We're not sold on the Tar Heels' chances of winning the National Championship, but we think that they're an elite level team (which should be obvious to anyone with eyes).

The Heels have three -- and possibly more -- likely future NBA first round draft picks on their roster. Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington may not be destined for NBA superstardom, but they will probably be drafted in the first round. And Danny Green probably has an outside (albeit considerably outside) chance of making it to the "league."

Teams that contend for National Championships almost always have multiple future NBA players on their rosters. The Tar Heels definitely fit that bill.

Drive and Dish takes the position that Connecticut will, most likely, win the National Championship (although the loss of all-important guard Jerome Dyson to injury has the potential to cause the Huskies untold problems). We think North Carolina will probably make it all the way to the National Championship game, but we suspect they'll fall short of capturing their second National Championship in four years (UNC won the 2005 National Championship).


Duke:

Duke doesn't strike us as a legitimate Final Four contender, but make no mistake: Duke has two great players in shooting guard Gerald Henderson and forward Kyle Singler.

Henderson has solidified himself as one of the premier players in college basketball (and a likely lottery pick in the NBA Draft). He's such an excellent one on one player that Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski has appeared to have loosened up the reins on the motion offense to create opportunities for him to isolate his defender. At the college level, there aren't many teams that can slow Gerald Henderson. He's an outstanding athlete and he has good size and strength for his position. What's more, he's a good shooter, he's very adept at taking his defender off the dribble (to either get to the basket, or create an open shot) and he has a variety of Kobe Bryant-esque, NBA-style scoring moves in his arsenal.

Kyle Singler is a versatile, new school power forward. He's not a banger, but he's a very good scorer. He has a nice perimeter shot and he's good at taking the ball to the basket from the wing. Singler should be a solid NBA player someday, but he's not a great presence in the paint. That would be fine if Duke had some other rugged big men to offset Singler's game. But since the rest of Duke's front line is widely -- and rightly -- considered to be suspect (Greg Zoubek's improved rebounding notwithstanding), the Blue Devils are unlikely to have what it takes to make a Final Four run.


Wake Forest:

Drive and Dish believes that Wake Forest has enough talent and enough size to be a Final Four team, but we question their maturity and ability to make good decisions. The Demon Deacons are a very young team, and we think that they're a year away from being a legitimate Final Four contender.


Clemson:

Clemson is ranked No. 18 in the AP Top 25, but we think they're overrated. Their guard play is suspect. K.C. Rivers is a nice point guard, but shooting guard Terrence Oglesby is an one-dimensional 3 point shooter whose shot selection is iffy and who makes many questionable decisions with the ball.

Forward Trevor Booker has shown an ability to score in the paint, but Clemson's guards have had trouble getting the ball to him in the post (especially Oglesby). Center Raymond Sykes is an athletic, strong rebounder/"garbage man." He and Booker give Clemson a formidable front line. Sykes is one of those tough, scraping, big men who seem to have a special ability for always being around the ball in rebounding, drive and dish, and interior defensive situations. That allows Sykes to get easy baskets from simple cuts to the basket, and to pull in tons of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) and loose balls. But it also means that he gets fouled a lot. And that's a problem for Clemson, as Sykes' decidedly poor free throw shooting has been a critical factor in several of the Tigers' losses.

Clemson may have a nice starting front line, but they're not very deep inside. Thus, Raymond Sykes will have to play most of the game (and stay out of foul trouble) in order for Clemson to be competitive in the NCAA Tournament. And he'll absolutely have to be in the game during "crunch time" in any close Tourney contest. Unfortunately for Clemson, that will put him in position to be fouled (frequently) in late game situations. If Clemson finds itself entangled in a "nail-biter" game in the NCAA Tournament, expect the opposing team to go out of its way to foul Sykes. Thus, Raymond Sykes' free throw shooting could be a critical factor in determining Clemson's prospects for making a run in the Tournament.

Ultimately, Drive and Dish remains skeptical of Clemson. We expect them to be granted a favorable seed, but to make an early exit from the NCAA Tournament.

Now for the rest of the league:

North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest and Clemson are certain NCAA Tournament teams. There's simply no question that those teams are in. And they're all certain to get high seeds. No. 22 Florida State is also, for all intents and purposes, "in." The Seminoles won't likely be seeded as highly as the four aforementioned teams, but it's nearly a sure thing that they'll get into the Tournament. Boston College, Maryland, Miami and Virginia Tech are all essentially "bubble" teams.


Boston College:

Boston College turned a lot of heads on Jan. 4, when they upset unbeaten and No. 1 ranked (at the time) North Carolina in the Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill. BC also beat Duke on Feb. 15, and has wins over Florida State, Maryland and Providence. Their only bad loss -- and it was, indeed, a bad loss -- came at the hands of Harvard, one game after they upset No. 1 North Carolina.

Drive and Dish expects Boston College to get into the NCAA Tournament. They're a 20-plus win ACC team with wins over North Carolina and Duke. They're certainly not an NCAA Tournament sure-thing, but they appear to be in pretty good shape (barring a collapse in the ACC Tournament). It will be close, but as of this writing, BC is likely to get in.


Maryland:

Maryland is 18-12 and head Coach Gary Williams has come under fire for not having the Terrapins atop the ACC in 2008 and 2009 (despite the fact that he was hailed as a miracle worker after guiding the unheralded Terps to the 2002 National Championship). Maryland has an impressive, fairly recent (2/21/09) upset win over North Carolina. But the Terrapins only have one other big win, and it's been gathering dust all season: they upset Michigan State way back on Nov. 27, 2008. Maryland has a recent "good" loss at the hands of Wake Forest (3/3), but they have a more recent "bad" loss to hapless Virginia (3/7). What's more, Duke crushed Maryland by 41 points (85-44) at Cameron Indoor Stadium back in January. Normally, a road loss to Duke wouldn't count as a bad loss. But "bubble" teams can't afford many 20-plus point losses, regardless of who their opponents were. For a team on the "bubble," having a 40-plus point loss on it's resume could prove to be a deal-breaker.

Verdict: Maryland needs more wins over quality opponents. If they can put together an impressive run in the ACC Tournament, the Terps could force their way into the NCAA Tournament. As it stands right now, they're likely headed to the N.I.T.


Virginia Tech:

It seems like Virginia Tech finds itself on the NCAA Tournament "bubble" every year. It's become commonplace for the Hokies to pull several stunning upsets (usually road wins over Duke and/or North Carolina) followed almost immediately by several equally stunning -- or at the very least, head-scratching -- embarrassingly bad losses to sub-.500 teams.

This year, Virginia Tech's huge upset road win came at the expense of Wake Forest, who was undefeated and ranked No. 1 in the AP Top 25 at the time. The Hokies fell just short of upsetting Duke and/or UNC, but they also avoided their usual subsequent letdown losses to teams at the bottom of the ACC standings (save for their Feb. 18, loss to Virginia). As it stands, Virginia Tech has a 17-13 record and, once again, sits firmly on the NCAA Tournament "bubble." But the Hokies' resume, while not as checkered as in years past, appears to be a bit thin. On the plus side, the Hokies have one signature win (Wake Forest), and a have a nice five game winning streak from late January that includes wins over Boston College (1/17), the aforementioned then-undefeated and No. 1-ranked Wake Forest (1/21) and Miami (1/25). The Hokies' only notable "bad" losses came at the hands of Georgia (12/9), Duke (once again, for the purposes of determining a team's viability for receiving an NCAA Tournament bid, a loss to Duke would normally be seen as a "good" loss, but VA Tech's 25 point loss to the Blue Devils on Jan. 4, will be considered "bad" because the Hokies lost by more than 20 points), and the previously mentioned Virginia Cavaliers (2/28).

Virginia Tech also has two notable losses that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will likely consider to be "good" losses (although neither is recent): a 1 point loss to Xavier (11/21), and a 2 point loss to Wisconsin (12/1) in the ACC vs. Big Ten Challenge.

Ultimately, Virginia Tech finds itself in the same position as Maryland: they desperately need a few more wins over good teams. If VA Tech can make a run in ACC Tournament, they'll probably punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. Anything short of that, however, and the Hokies will have to settle for an invitation to the N.I.T. (which is nothing to scoff at, by the way).


Miami:

Miami is a quintessential "bubble" team. They're 18-11, they've got a big win over Wake Forest (2/4), a season sweep of Boston College (2/21 & 1/10), and in shooting guard Jack McClinton, the Hurricanes have one of the most electrifying players in college basketball. Miami has helped itself by steering clear of bad losses (they have none), and they have a few notable "good" losses on their resume: a 3 point loss to Duke (2/7), a 4 point loss to North Carolina (2/15) and losses to No. 3 Connecticut and Ohio State.

But like Maryland and Virginia Tech, Miami is a probably a few "big" wins shy of receiving a bid to "the Dance." Again, like Maryland and VA Tech, the Hurricanes will need to string together a few wins in the ACC Tournament -- which would include an eye-opening upset (or two) over one (or more) of the conference's power programs -- if they hope to go "dancing" in the NCAA Tournament.

That said, if Miami can make a run in the ACC Tournament, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee may look favorably upon them because the Hurricanes feature the exciting, All American caliber McClinton.

Make no mistake: Jack McClinton will be a first round draft pick in the NBA Draft. He's a smaller, combo guard who can break down defenders at will and light it up from deep beyond the three point arc. And he's one of the toughest, most grizzled competitors in the college game. Drive and Dish maintains that McClinton's telegenic playing style brings to mind the playing styles of the Memphis Grizzlies' O.J. Mayo and the Chicago Bulls' Ben Gordon (although McClinton is bigger than the 5'10"ish Gordon). No doubt, Jack McClinton is fun to watch. What's more, flashy perimeter players like Jack McClinton are attractive to TV audiences. And the CBS and the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee know as much.

All things being equal, the presence of Jack McClinton on Miami's roster could give the Hurricanes an advantage over other bubble teams from the ACC in the eyes of the Tournament Selection Committee (although Maryland's star guard Greivis Vasquez is, at the very least, deserving of mention in that regard as well). He's a legitimate star who is capable of "putting the team on his back" ... and that has the potential to make for good TV. But Miami needs to win some ACC Tournament games if they want the Selection Committee to seriously consider their pros and cons. The Hurricanes play Virginia Tech in the first round of the ACC Tournament. Whichever team which loses that game will have to settle for the N.I.T.